This document summarizes forecasted roadway volumes and level of service conditions in the study area based on population projections and employment estimates.
Population projections were examined as part of the needs assessment. Key findings from the population projections include:
In 2015 zonal employment data was projected to 2050 estimates using the Statewide Analysis
Model (
As shown in the figure, an estimate of 4,609 employees was recorded for the RRAD/TexAmericas center TAZ in 2015. This number assumes that the TexAmericas Center employed 865 individuals in 2015, and that the remaining individuals were RRAD employees.
By 2050, the TexAmericas Center estimates that the number of full-time employees will increase by 4,561 to bring the total number of employees within the TAZ to 9,898.
Given the uncertainty of the impacts of COVID-19 on various industries, no additional model input adjustments for employment assumption is needed.
An analysis of traffic conditions based on estimated growth rates from the Statewide Analysis Model (SAM v4) was performed. The SAM growth rates resulted in increased traffic volumes on most roadways, including I-30, I-369, US 59, US 67, and US 82 (Slide 1). The level of service (LOS) was then estimated based on the volume/capacity ratios and peak period traffic volumes. The AM period is 6:30 – 8:30 and the PM period is 14:30 – 18:30.
From the LOS analysis, sections along I-30 at I-369 and US 59 at I-369 are projected to experience congestion during morning and evening peak traffic in 2050 (Slide 2 and Slide 3). These routes and others in Texarkana may require improvements to address any anticipated increased traffic volumes. The projections from SAM were based on pre-COVID-19 outbreak conditions; thus, the long-term effects of stay-at-home policies and other COVID-19 impacts are still unknown for future employment and traffic patterns.
Use the arrows at the bottom of the interactive map to switch views between Forecasted No Build Daily Traffic Volumes, Forecasted No Build AM LOS, and Forecasted No Build PM LOS.A 2050 Build Scenario for the proposed Western Connection was also analyzed; however, it was found that traffic volumes to RRAD/TexAmericas Center were less than 5,000 vehicles. The anticipated demand may not warrant construction of a new roadway at this time. As traffic conditions and demand change in future years, the proposed Western Connection could be analyzed again to assess the need for it.
The Western Connection Needs Assessment determined that based on current travel patterns, the projected 2050 traffic volume for the proposed Western Connection is less than 5,000 vehicles a day. This projected traffic volume does not warrant a new roadway facility. Future needs assessments may be conducted in the next 5 to 10 years to determine if travel patterns have changed and warrant the need for the proposed facility.
Other findings from the study include: